Latest Cooling Not Unexpected

The latest satellite measured temperature data for the month of January has just been released and there are no real surprises.

According to Remote Sensing Systems, the average global lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for the month of January 2011 was 0.083 C above normal. This continues the short downward trend of temperature anomalies that began in the fall of 2010 in response to the strengthening La Nina.
This is not unexpected to climate scientists. La Nina's have a general cooling influence on the global temperature. Future long-term warming forecasts take into account the fluctuations of La Nina and El Nino.

The image below shows the average temperature anomalies globally during the month of January 2011 for the lower troposphere. Courtesy of RSS. Note the cold anomalies over the eastern U.S., central Pacific and eastern Asia. Still relatively warm over the far north, esp. northeast Canada.


Despite a very inactive sun, 2010 still ended up tied for the warmest year on record even with the end of the year cooling trend.

During the Fall 2007 to spring 2008 La Nina, which was similar in strength to this current La Nina, global satellite measured temperatures during 4 of the first 6 months of 2008 were actually below normal.

There is usually a several month lag in global temperature response to the onset La Nina and El Nino, so we should not be surprised that the next few months continue to run close or even below normal. Model consensus has this current La Nina peaking now with a slow weakening trend into the summer.


January 2011 satellite temperature anomaly statistics
Global (70S to 82.5 N): +0.083 C
Cont. USA: -.794 C
Arctic region: +1.800 C
The RSS global lower troposphere temperature anomaly plot below which goes back to 1979 still shows a positive decadal trend of +.163 C.

Or you could cherrypick the same graph only showing 1998 on and say that there has been no recent warming. In this case, ignore the trend line, that's the 1979-2011 trend.


The last decade was the warmest on record. I think it is safe to say that the planet is warming. Satellite and surface observations confirm it.

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According to Dr. Roy Spencer, the University of Alabama at Huntsville satellite measured temperature anomaly for the lower troposphere in January 2011 was -0.009 C.
Here is the UAH plot of temperature anomalies since 1979, courtesy of Dr. Roy Spencer.

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Acknowledgement

MSU/AMSU data are produced by Remote Sensing Systems and sponsored by the NOAA Climate and Global Change Program. Data are available at www.remss.com.